Channeling Nostradamus

Mark it down, I'm putting it here in writing. By October 15th there will be a "surprise" that rocks the international community and shifts the views of the American public. John McCain wins the presidency in a landslide vote, the sounds of danger and evils of the world will fall silent as we fall into the comforting arms of John McCain.

I only hope that this "surprise" doesn't claim the lives of many people and that our government and armed forces do everything they can to deter any sort of action against our worldwide interests despite the political boost their party may see from such an action.

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Time to Call a Spade a Spade

Let's be honest people, unless Hillary rolls out another 40-60 superdelegates in the next week or two, her mathematical chances at taking the nomination are all but over. So what the hell is she still doing giving stump speeches and campaigning around the nation? Why can't she just give it up? Because she is too smart and keen on the political workings to be defused by one defeat. I'm sure she has studied the history books and you don't have to look very far (Reagan '76 and Hart '84) to find examples of those who were strong losers in an election and then became strong front-runners in future races.

She will be one of the strongest losing candidates that our political playing field has seen for a long while. And I fully believe she knows that this race is over, "I will work my heart out for the nominee of the Democratic Party to make sure we have a Democratic president" were the exact words out of her mouth last night after winning in a landslide victory in West Virginia. As a quick aside, the primary in WVa wasn't even a battleground until Hillary declared it so last week and the results of that election were known months in advance, so those results shouldn't scare anyone in the Obama camp.

What Hillary is doing is setting herself up nice for the 2012 or 2016 run to the White House. She is getting experience in organizing a nationwide campaign and setting the seeds in local communities, recruiting volunteers and organizers that will no doubt benefit her next run for the office. These are all lofty and altruistic goals but hopefully the tone of her current campaign will not divide the Democrats and Independents enough to see John McCain into the White House. That could be her biggest mistake in continuing this campaign. If the Democratic voters feel she betrayed the party to further her own goals (by dividing the vote and wasting precious general election campaign time) she may negate her chances for the future.

So while I won't say Hillary should step down, it is time to regear your statements and views towards the other candidate, it is time to uplift and fulfill the Democratic party. Divisiveness should not be tolerated, no matter how valuable the personal goal is, this election is too important for American's around the world to have mudslinging and stereotypes sway the voters minds.

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Freedom of the Press, Voices of the People Stifled

Events is recent weeks have highlighted a problem in growing nations as well as long established powers, the dissolution of a free press, or the access of foreign press. Tibet, Zimbabwe, and now Myanmar are all refusing access to journalists who want to report on the hardships of their people.

In Tibet, the Chinese are stamping out all means of unrest that could spoil the summer Olympics in Bejing; Tibetans complain of beatings and brutal killings. In Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe is hanging on grimly, trying to overthrow an apparent election loss by subterfuge and violence, after running his country into the ground for twenty years. And in Myanmar, after 46 years of iron rule by a military junta, the generals want to stop outsiders from witnessing the devastation of Cyclone Nargis. They're afraid of a threat to their power.

Unfortunately for their people, major disasters and human rights violations have caused a series of devastating events in the past weeks. In China, a severe earthquake has buries hundreds of schoolchildren and killed upwards of 10,000 people. The Chinese, for all of the consternation shown from Humanitarian agencies, is actually doing their part to help their citizens through disaster.

But Myanmar is a world removed from that reality. The government, just a day after a devastating cyclone claimed 32,000 lives (with another 33,000 still missing), decided to hold a constitutional referendum rather than delay it in order to help the victims. Girls danced and balloons were released into the air to celebrate the vote.

And the Myanmar government continues to block aid from foreign countries (and no doubt is redistributing and profiting off of the given supplies and aid) and allow their citizens to suffer. An undercover British correspondent said that as many as 100,000 may now be dead with as many as a million at risk due to disease and improper nutrition or water supply. As of now, over 2 million residents are without clean water or government assisted intervention.

It is a far cry away from the US, but instead of pressuring Myanmar to recognize its citizens (kinda like we did in Iraq) we have sent billions and will not ask where or how that money is being spent. I'm sure in 5 years there will be a beautiful new palace and government buildings, and maybe they'll even send a thank you note so the elite could live in luxury.

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I've Been Stimulated!

Thanks El Presidente for that cool $600 you put in my bank account today. I sat down to plan out how to pay you the favor back and stimulate you to get your economy up. Instead I bought 2 plane tickets to Cancun, I'll try to only buy American goods while I'm there. Hasta pronto!
Chee (that's Tye in Spanish)

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Dean is MIA!!!

So I haven't talked to Dean in a week and he won't return my calls or txts. If anyone out there sees him make sure he's ok.

BTW, i just got GTA4 so that's why I haven't been posting as much, the girl already hates it.

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Obama Gets the Full Hour of "Meet the Press"

On Sunday morning I was really looking forward to seeing a full hour of Barack Obama on "Meet the Press". Of course I knew I wasn't going to make the 9am start time so before I went out on Saturday I made sure to set the DVR to record it, and I am so glad I did.

I don't know that I could've sat through an hour of live dribble about the Reverend Wright issue again. I thought all of this crap was over with? Didn't Obama say he denounced the guy's statements and was cutting ties with him? Anyway, Tim Russert had a real chance to sit down and talk actual politics and policies with someone who may represent just under 300 million world citizens in less than a year, but instead chose to hammer home the vitriol of Wright's comments, which Obama clearly stated he didn't agree with over 5 times in the interview (full transcript).

Towards the end of the show there was some good discussion on Iran, nuclear power, and exactly how Obama sees the primary race ending up (he is pretty sure he'll win without a large upheaval by the superdelegates). Overall I thought Obama came off as concise and informed on the discussed issues. He explained very precisely why he is against the "gas tax holiday" proposed by John McCain and quickly taken up by Hillary Clinton. He wasn't afraid to expose just how much of a political gimmick (I'll cover this later today in another post) the "gas tax holiday" is, and clearly outlined his position on the matter.

Overall I think there was probably 10-15 minutes worth of a 45 minute interview that was worth watching. The rest was really media dribble and divisive reporting, the same that I've come to expect of ALL news agencies, regardless of political leaning.

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How Close Is The Democratic Primary?

I sat around and watched a little about the Democratic Primaries in North Carolina and Indiana last night. Obama took a pretty sound victory in North Carolina and Clinton managed to just squeak out a win in Indiana. So I started thinking about how close this primary was and what it would take for each candidate to win the primary. It turns out that this race isn't as close as the media would have you believe.

One of the major issues muddying up the Democratic landscape is the large body of "superdelegates" who have yet to throw their hat in the ring for one candidate or another. Currently Clinton leads in pledged superdelegates, but by a slight margin. To make my analysis easier I assumed that Obama and Clinton would split the remaining 277 superdelegate votes (139C, 138O). If this turns out to be the case the race for the nomination is not nearly as close as I had previously thought.

Taking the assumption that the candidates will split the remaining supers leaves 5 states (WV, OR, SD, KY, MT) and Puerto Rico to contribute their votes. For Obama to win the nomination he needs just 24% of the votes from each state. That means Hillary will have to muster more than 76% in every single contest left to be able to keep Obama from reaching that 2,025 threshold and securing the nomination. Interestingly enough, even if Clinton does receive that large of a turnout, she will not have clinched the nomination as she will have only 1,986 delegates.

So to me the race seems far out of hand for Clinton. That is, unless she knows something I don't, like how many unpledged superdelegates are going to vote for her. Even then she would need a massive amount of the remaining superdelegate votes to make this race go her way. Can someone please sit down with both the candidates, run over the numbers and then make an informed decision as to whether this process should continue, or would the voters be better served with a candidate to support against the GOP nomination.

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Senate Passes Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act

This last week has seen a small victory in healthcare coverage for consumers. The Senate, on a 95-0 vote, passed the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008 (GINA, H.R. 493). The bill's goal is to "prohibit discrimination on the basis of genetic information with respect to health insurance and employment," filling what was considered a large gap in coverage protection of employees' and patients' rights.

This vote has been a long time in the making, with multiple votes coming up on it, but never in the same congressional session. This year, Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev) determined that the bill needed to be on the front burner and its about time. Francis S. Collins, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute and leader of the Human Genome Project said, "this is a day for celebration...I think the American public can breathe a sigh of relief that the fear of genetic discrimination, which has basically been a cloud over our future, has been dealt with." (Washington Post, April 24)

This doesn't seem like a big deal now but a big reason of that is due to the doubt citizens had about their coverage if genetic tests were performed. A January survey conducted by the Genetics and Public Policy Center found that 93 percent of respondents would not participate in genetic research projects unless it were illegal for employers and insurers to use the results against them.

And for those of us like myself who work with DNA research and clinical samples, a long standing problem has been solved. During my research many times it is necessary to confirm that my own DNA has not contaminated the samples that I have been working with. The only way to do this is to perform a genetic fingerprint on my own sample and compare it to the working samples. Although I am the only one who uses the information it is written down to document the full procedure. If my employer or insurer happened to find an underlying genetic problem, such as a risk of cancer, heart disease, or diabetes, previously they would have had the right to terminate my employment or coverage in order to save themselves the problem in the future.

There are still some questions that were not answered in the bill including life insurance, but a gaping hole in employee and patients rights has been closed.

The bigger debate surrounding this issue should be under what circumstances should it be right for health insurers to decline coverage? Under a more sophisticated and consumer friendly system, such protection would be completely irrelevant, as nobody could arbitrarily be declined care. The Congress has put a band-aid on a system that needs a complete reconstructive operation, but until there is an administration in the White House who cares to acknowledge the damage a market-driven system has inflicted on America's health and pocketbooks, this looks to be all Congress can do.

I'll take a quote from Barack Obama's new book, The Audacity of Hope, to explain a pragmatic way to look at the healthcare problem for those that really think accessible, affordable healthcare should be spurned in favor of a pay-or-die attitude.

"Given the amount of money we spend on health care (more per capita than any other nation), we should be able to provide basic coverage to every single American. But we can't sustain current rates of health-care inflation every year; we have to contain costs for the entire system, including Medicare and Medicaid. With Americans changing jobs more frequently, more likely to go through spells of unemployment, and more likely to work part-time or to be self-employed, health insurance can't just run through employers anymore. It needs to be portable." (The Audacity of Hope, p. 184)

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